Posting date: 14 July 2023, 8:02h
Last updated: July 11, 20,23 at 10:32h
The original edition of today’s article was published on August 19, 2022.
Today’s edition was originally published on August 19, 2022. Even if you recognize the truth of this statement, whenever that sixth spin lands on black, it can still be difficult to resist learning incorrectly from the experience.Gamblers play roulette at The D Casino in downtown Las Vegas. A streak of one colour on a roulette wheel does not increase the chances of another color appearing next. Some gamblers use this system as a way to predict their next big win. Anthony Lucas, professor of casino management and former gaming operations analyst at UNLV, says that this is a common myth. Lucas explained to Casino.org that a common misconception is that long-term trends within a random system must be corrected in the short term.
“It’s the way our brains are wired.”
However, this tendency to see patterns sometimes leads humans to see false patterns or places where patterns don’t exist. This is not helpful in these situations. Our brains try to recognize patterns in roulette. For example, we might predict that you will land on black if you have landed on red. But this is just an example of false pattern recognition.
Casinos know that many people believe this myth, however. Casinos often use electronic outcome boards that show a player’s previous spins compared to the next players, further capitalizing on this pattern recognition mindset.Winning streaks do happen, however. As Lucas explained, “Streaks are a normal occurrence within any random process.”These Colors Don’t Run
Ray, my childhood friend, once believed he had a system for winning at roulette. He would bring me with him to check out each roulette table at the casino in Las Vegas he was visiting. Ray’s system worked. He would walk away from every two-hour session I witnessed with about $500 more. He’d walk away from every two-hour session I witnessed about $500 up.
“See, I told you,” Ray would boast, questioning my logic for not betting along with him.
According to Lucas, this is similar to the slot-machine jackpot myth we busted two weeks ago. Both involve sampling with replacement.
What the typical gambler does not seem to understand, or
want
to understand, is that the outcomes from independent and identically distributed variables often feature large runs of single colors or even numbers,” Lucas told
Casino.org
. “This is normal, and there is no immediate self-correction required.”
These short-term imbalances always dissipate over the long term, Lucas explained. The red and black roulette numbers will usually come up evenly on average. It’s a shame about Ray
I walked in late to one of Ray’s gambling sessions and noticed him, red-faced and pacing around the casino floor. He was clearly down a large amount of money. He wouldn’t tell me how much until years later. It was then that I discovered Ray’s strategy of doubling down on every loss. This is known as a Martingale betting system, Lucas explained, and no, it doesn’t work, either.
Luckily, it only cost Ray $5,000 to finally learn the lesson that the only system that works in Las Vegas is the one that gives the house a slight edge in the long run. That may have been the last time he played roulette.
“Your friend is lucky,” Lucas said, “in the sense that things could have gone much worse for him.”Look for “Vegas Myths Busted” every Monday on Casino.org. Click here to read about previously busted Vegas Myths. Have a Vegas Myth that should be busted? Email corey@casino.org.